The ANC’s total supremacy in South Africa is over. Now a healthier future can begin | Alexis Akwagyiram
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Tthe results are in and the message is clear: the ruling African National Congress (ANC) was demoted in the country’s general elections. South Africa is undergoing the biggest change in its political landscape since the end of apartheid 30 years ago.
Wednesday’s poll count showed the party fell below the 50% needed for a parliamentary majority for the first time since white minority rule ended in 1994. It must now share power for the first time. And its political leaders will have to suffer the ignominy of struggling to build a coalition with their opponents.
This is a new low for the ANC. It is the party born of Africa’s most famous liberation movement, which freed black South Africans from white minority rule, avoided the country’s descent into civil war and, in Nelson Mandela, gave the country its first black president.
At first glance, the election result is a tragedy. For those of us of a certain vintage, the ANC conjures memories of Mandela walking out of prison with a clenched fist raised. Four years after his release, the 1994 elections, in which blacks voted for the first time, sealed the triumph of the ANC over the vile system of racial segregation.
But look again: the reality is that South Africa’s recent election was good for the country. This shows that its democracy gives citizens the ability to hold the government accountable. Voters had plenty of options – a record 51 opposition parties were on the national ballot. This level of choice, combined with a proportional representation system, means that South Africans will get a government that better reflects the will of the electorate than two-party-dominated countries with more arcane voting systems, such as the UK and US.
The South African government had a lot to answer for. Africa’s most industrialized economy is in ruins. One in three South Africans of working age is unemployed, increases to almost half – 45.5% – for those aged 15 to 34.
Such high levels of unemployment help explain why people born after the end of apartheid – the “born free” generation – turned their backs on the ANC. They brought about this change. Many feel economically disenfranchised in a country ranked by the World Bank as one of the most unequal in the world. And with no memory of apartheid, they feel no desire to vote ANC out of loyalty.
High unemployment was just one of a long list of grievances South Africans shared with me in the run-up to the election. Gradual power outages caused by power distribution, known as “load shedding,” have frustrated people for years and stifled businesses. Access to clean water has become more difficult for the poorest people, and violent crime is rampant in some neighborhoods.
Multiple scandals involving ANC figures have highlighted the divide between the haves and the have-nots. Jacob Zuma, the country’s president from 2009 to 2018, is accused of overseeing systemic corruption known as conquest of the statein which he allegedly allowed businessmen close to him to loot state resources and influence state policy.
Even the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, an ANC veteran and successful businessman who was part of the negotiating team that brokered the deal that ended apartheid, was almost an impeachment over a scandal involving between $500,000 and $5 million in cash stolen from his private game farm.
The decline of the ANC can be traced to its declining popularity at the polling stations. She won the first post-apartheid election with 62.6% of the vote and hovered close to the 70% mark in subsequent polls, but her share of the vote fell to 57.5% in 2019.
The corruption and economic rot that has occurred is a product of South Africa being a de facto one-party state for the past 30 years. The lack of oversight allowed the worst elements of corruption to take hold in the party.
A coalition government will give other groups a chance to impose checks and balances on the ANC. And fresh blood in government—after decades of once-young liberation fighters turning into corrupt fat cats—could provide the diversity of ideas needed to generate effective policies on key issues.
Of course, a coalition government will not be painless. South Africa is entering uncharted territory. And we know just by looking at Europe that coalition governments can easily fall apart.
It is an electoral irony that the architect of the downfall of the ANC was Zuma. After falling out with the ANC, he participated in the formation in December last year of uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a party named after the ANC’s armed wing from the apartheid days. MK, as is known, took 15% of the vote. This means Zuma can have a say in the formation of the government.
But in the end, moving to a coalition government will benefit South Africa. It is also an opportunity for the ANC to recover. It will still be the largest party in government after winning the largest share of the vote at 40%, compared to around 20% won by its nearest rival, the main opposition Democratic Alliance.
Seemingly believing that their party was doomed to rule forever, ANC bigwigs were shocked by the election result. The party has learned that it can be punished and must not take the electorate for granted.
This is the beginning of a new era for South Africa. And it’s hard to imagine what’s to come could be worse than the reasons for this big reset.
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