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Irish voters cast ballots in a general election in which incumbent Taoiseach Simon Harris is under pressure from the resurgent left-wing nationalist party Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, led by Mary Lou McDonald.
Census Voting on Friday won’t start until 9 a.m. Saturday, with near-final results expected by late Sunday.
The long count is a result of the transferable vote system, which allows the electorate to rank their favorite candidates and ensures proportional representation in the Dáil.
The exit poll, commissioned by RTÉ, the Irish Times, Irish-language channel TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, will give an indication of the first preference votes at 10pm on Friday with the second preference votes published 20 minutes later.
The party count, which is conducting a parallel unofficial counting operation in all 43 constituencies, is expected to reveal its predictions for the election results around noon on Saturday.
Unless there is an absolute majority for one party, which is highly unlikely, it could be weeks before a government is formed as the parties negotiate and fight over the composition of a new coalition government.
Opinion polls show a dead battle with the two main parties in the current centre-right governing coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, led by the former prime minister Michael Martin – plus Sinn Féin, all with around 20% of the vote.
Fianna Fáil and Well done Gael have refused to enter a government with Sinn Fein because of their historical links with the IRA during the Northern Ireland Troubles.
Independent candidates are expected to grow in popularity, partly because so many Fine Gael candidates are new – 18 of the 33 leaving Teachta Dálas (TDs) did not stand for re-election. Others hope to make electoral gains on the back of anti-immigration policies. But an Irish Times poll earlier this week showed the status quo was most popular.
Country preference was found to be the second term for a partnership between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – with or without their third partner, the Green Party.
The partnership took four months to form after the last election in 2020 when Sinn Fein celebrated its best ever general election, securing 37 Dáil seats, one behind Fianna Fáil and two more than Fine Gael.
In their vote, the leaders predicted a close result. Harris said he was expecting a “fascinating few days” with the earl.
He said the composition and stability of the next government could be decided by where the devolution votes go. Fine Gael and Sinn Féin asked voters to give their second preference vote to the same party or similar parties to increase their chances of leading a stable coalition.
The Dáil consists of 174 seats with around 88 needed for a clear majority. However, a coalition is more likely than a majority government, with no party expected to win more than 35-40 seats.
Fine Gael went into the election with Harris beset by campaign missteps, including an awkward encounter with a disability care worker.
The emphasis on the taoiseach’s personality and energy was a strategy used to help win party support where no recognizable candidate was running, with so many TDs withdrawn.
Meanwhile, leader of the Social Democratic Party announced the birth of a daughter on election day.
Holly Cairns, who is standing for re-election in the Cork South West constituency, posted on Instagram: “She’s here. We are totally in love with her.”
One of her followers replied: “What a landing day. Her timing is amazing.” And said, “Baby on election day. Do you take Polly as your middle name?’
The Social Democrats are one of the smallest parties in the Dáil with six seats.
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