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Ireland goes to the polls with voters expected to choose either a second term for the incumbent centre-right coalition or a left-leaning rainbow coalition led by a resurgent Sinn Feinthe former political wing of the IRA.
Opinion polls show a dead battle, with the two main government parties – Fine Gael, led by the taoiseach, Simon Harrisand Fianna Fáil, led by former prime minister Micheál Martin – and Sinn Féin are all riding on around 20% of the vote.
All parties’ priorities have never strayed too far from housing, the cost-of-living crisis and, to a lesser extent, immigration, leaving little in between in terms of distinguishing moments in a short, sharp, three week campaign.
Fine Gael has argued that a Sinn Féin government would pose an economic risk in the face of Donald Trump’s second term as president. Trump’s threats of tariffs on EU exports and a promise to repatriate jobs are seen as a major danger to Ireland.
Fianna Fáil’s Martin, one of the most experienced political leaders in Irelandhe is also pushing for economic stability, while telling voters that housing and support are among his other priorities.
On Friday, Martin said he was “cautiously hopeful” about the outcome of what he called a “close” election battle. Asked if a fractured or unclear result could lead to another poll being held in 2025, Martin said: “I think that’s something we definitely don’t want to do, but it’s in the hands of the people.”
Martin was speaking after voting with his family at his local polling station in Ballinlough, Cork.
With an 88-seat threshold for a clear majority in the Dáil and no party in previous elections getting more than 38, a coalition is the likely outcome after Friday’s vote.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out working with Sinn Féin, hoping to put it out of power for another five years.
On the final day of campaigning, the Sinn Fein leader, Mary Lou MacDonald, appeared to have a renewed sense of confidence and signaled for the first time that she would be willing to talk to left-wing parties, the Social Democrats, Labor and the People Before Profit group, to form a left-wing coalition, were the exact numbers that emerged when the vote closed.
“We started with the two big, the two establishment parties [Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael]assuming they had a home run, assuming they’ll just waltz back into government buildings. We never thought this would happen,” she told reporters.
“I urge people to get out and vote for this, not just for Sinn Féin, but to vote for a change of government.” She said polls this week showed “there is a world beyond Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael”.
Ireland uses a system of proportional representation called the single transferable vote (PR-STV), allowing voters to rank candidates by preference. This means that the ‘taking’ of a second preference vote has the power to translate into Dáil seats.
Harris said he was expecting a “fascinating couple of days” after casting his ballot, minutes after the polls opened. The Taoiseach said where transfer votes go – a key part of the single transferable vote system – will decide the make-up and stability of the next government.
Echoing the efforts of the Liberal Democrats and others in the UK who called for tactical voting in the general election to ensure success for progressive parties, Sinn Féin is asking the public to cast their votes for it or other parties on the left rather than vote for anything dissatisfaction with the rulers by choosing one of the 171 independent candidates.
After the 2020 general elections produced an inconclusive result, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, two parties forged from opposing sides in the Irish civil war of the 1920s, agreed to put aside almost a century of animosity and share power. Sinn Féin won the popular vote in 2020, but its failure to win enough candidates meant it did not secure enough Dáil seats to have a realistic chance of forming a government.
Independents may turn out to be kingmakers this time, as they did in the 1980s and 1990s, with polls suggesting they could garner a 20% share of the vote.
The Green Party, the third party in the outgoing government with 12 Dáil seats, is expected to lose seats but hopes to be invited into a coalition, while the Social Democrats (currently with six seats) and Labor (six seats) are fighting for the same position .
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