Brexit makes no sense in a world dominated by Trump. Britain’s place is back in the EU | Jonathan Freedland

iit’s one damn thing after another. As Keir Starmer discovered, government, like life, can feel like a series of events, each coming faster than the last. If not a a cabinet minister resigns because of a past fraud conviction, MPs vote on assisted dying – and that’s just for one day. In this blizzard of news, it can be hard to make sense of lasting changes in the landscape—even those that have profound implications for our place in the world.

The event in November 2024 that will have the most lasting global impact is the election of Donald Trump. There are some in the highest circles of the UK government who are surprisingly relaxed about this fact, confident that indeed, we’ve been through it once, we’ll be through it again. Yes, they admit that Trump has nominated some crazy people to lead areas that are critical to UK-US relations, such as defense and intelligence, but don’t worry, officials in London will do what they did last time : are working with like-minded colleagues in the Washington bureaucracy to bypass Trump loyalists at the top.

Whether it’s complacency or naivety, it’s a mistake. This isn’t like the last time. As Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told me, “Trump is different and the world is different.” During his first term, Trump was surrounded by the types of institutions he appointed to key positions. Now he will be single. There was no war in Europe then, China was in cooperation mode and Britain was still in the EU. All that has changed now.

Consider what Trumpism, if implemented, means to the world. This would destroy the post-1945 order maintained for eight decades by the US. During this period, the US acted both as a guarantor of a system of global trade and as a protective umbrella for the Western alliance, with Britain and Europe the obvious beneficiaries. Playing this role came at a cost to the US, but successive presidents believed it was worth it because a stable world was one in which the US could prosper.

Trump marks a radical break with that thinking. He believes that those previous US presidents were wretches, ripped off by allies who got a free ride at the expense of the US. He denies that the US has greater responsibilities than any other country: it should sacrifice nothing, instead looking after itself. He is happy that the US is number 1 in the world, but not the world leader. The two are different. As the tagline says: it’s “America First.”

For China, Russia, the Gulf states, Brazil and others, there is some relief in this: they are enjoying a future without a reprehensible Washington poking its nose into their business. But for Europe, including Britain, it is a disaster. In terms of both defense and economics, our societies are based on a US-led world that will soon no longer exist.

The impact will be felt most acutely in Ukraine, which is weeks away from seeing a drop in US support. Leonard fears a “Yalta-style settlement stamped by Trump and Vladimir Putin over the heads of European states,” one that would reward Putin’s aggression and leave him emboldened. This leaves more of those like Moldova and the Baltic states feeling vulnerable. As a guardian announced today“Germany is developing an app to help people find the nearest bunker in the event of an attack. Sweden distributes a 32-page pamphlet entitled If Crisis or War Comes. Half a million Finns have already downloaded an emergency preparedness guide. Berlin is taking steps to woo the German public kriegstüchtig: combat capable.

On the continent, it has become an urgent question: can Europe also defend itself without America or at best with less America? European defense spending is increasing and there is talk of shifting the industrial base, reorienting factories to enable a rapid and large-scale, pan-European rearmament programme. Our closest neighbors understand that if the US president no longer believes in NATO’s core principle of mutual defense – one for all and all for one – then at least the American pillar of NATO is gone. If NATO is to survive, the EU pillar will have to shoulder much of the burden alone.

It is not clear that this penny has dropped much in London. And remember, there’s a double jeopardy here. Trump also plans to protect US domestic industry by imposing tariffs on imports from the rest of the world. China will most likely be hit with a 60% tariff, but Trump wants it “universal” tariff up to 20% on all goods coming into the US – including from the UK. For a trading nation like the UK, this spells disaster.

So what can be done? On defence, Britain could pledge to spend more and increase military cooperation with European allies. Good as far as it goes. But in the face of a trade war, Britain alone would be almost powerless against US might. There is only one nearby market of comparable weight to the U.S. whose threats of retaliation against U.S. tariffs would have a deterrent effect, a body that, by the way, proves to be a virtuoso in the realm of trade and trade disputes. I am of course talking about European Union.

Moreover, these two spheres, the military and the economic, are no longer as distinct as they were. When countries confront each other, they no longer do so only through bombs and bullets. Everything else is being weaponized too, whether it’s the financial system through sanctions, the supply of energy, food or technology. Witness Russia’s war against Ukraine. As it happens, these are all areas where the EU’s particular brand of cooperation can help. So when Russia decided to cut off gas supplies to individual European countries, the EU was able to step in and connect what were previously separate energy networks, thereby thwarting this threat.

The point is that the landscape of 2016 – that fateful year – no longer exists. Many Brexiteers believed, in good faith, that a booming, free-trading Britain could thrive in a world of open borders. But that world is gone now, replaced by a world of war, barriers and Darwinian competition. Whatever arguments you make about Britain being out of the EU in the Obama era in 2016 make no sense now.

I don’t expect Starmer to announce a plan to rejoin the EU tomorrow. But it’s time for the outriders to start riding. Labor MPs, perhaps the odd minister, can begin to make the argument that is becoming increasingly obvious to many millions of Britons. The polls say soon governor of the Bank of England says it. And when immigration levels are four times higher now than when we were in the EU, the issue that served as the Brexiteer’s trump card is in pieces. One by one the prerequisites of the 2016 UK decision. are collapsing.

I understand the political calculations they made Labor believe that Brexit is an issue best avoided. But the reality around us is changing and politicians, especially governments, must adapt to it. In the age of Trump, when the US is no longer the predictable guarantor it once was, Britain cannot thrive alone and in the cold. It is not ideology or idealism, but hard-headed, practical common sense to say that our place is in Europe – and to say it now.